Artificial intelligence may reduce hiring in some occupations, but the latest federal projections do not point to employment losses across the US economy. The Bureau of Labor Statistics expects total employment to grow through 2034, even as automation puts pressure on routine customer-support and administrative work.
The outlook differs sharply by occupation. Customer service and insurance claims roles are projected to shrink, while data science, cybersecurity, computing research, and software development are expected to grow much faster than employment overall.
The latest BLS projections, released July 16, 2026, estimate that total US employment will grow 3.1% from 2024 to 2034. They also show why exposure to AI does not, by itself, determine whether a career will expand or contract.
What BLS projections can — and cannot — predict
Employment projections estimate how many people are expected to work in an occupation at the beginning and end of a 10-year period. They do not predict how many workers will be laid off at a particular time or identify how many individual jobs AI will eliminate.
A projected decline means an occupation is expected to employ fewer people nationally in 2034 than it did in 2024. It does not mean hiring will stop. Declining occupations may still produce thousands of openings each year as workers retire, change careers, or leave the labor force.
BLS also distinguishes between changes in job duties and changes in total employment. Its analysis of AI and employment explains that technology can automate parts of an occupation without eliminating the need for workers. Employers may use AI to conduct research, classify information, prepare drafts, or complete routine transactions while retaining employees for judgment, communication, oversight, and accountability.
Demand also affects the outcome. An occupation can become more productive and still add jobs when demand for its services grows quickly enough to offset the labor-saving effects of technology.
The projections have limits. BLS methods are designed mainly to capture gradual, structural changes. A faster-than-expected rise in AI adoption could produce occupational shifts that arrive sooner or differ from current estimates.
Which jobs face the greatest hiring pressure
Occupations built around routine information processing and customer support face some of the clearest employment pressure.
Employment of customer service representatives is projected to decline 5% from 2024 to 2034, a reduction of about 153,700 jobs. Self-service systems, mobile apps, social media, and automated tools allow customers to complete more basic transactions without speaking to a representative.
The occupation is not disappearing. BLS still projects about 341,700 openings each year, mainly because workers will transfer to other occupations or leave the labor force. Companies are also expected to continue using representatives for complicated inquiries, including account refunds and insurance coverage questions.
Insurance-related work faces similar pressure. Employment of claims adjusters, examiners, and investigators is projected to decline 5%, while auto damage insurance appraiser employment is expected to fall 8%. Software can help evaluate photographs, estimate repair costs, identify patterns, and process standard claims with fewer manual steps.
These projections do not prove that AI alone will cause every lost job. Industry demand, self-service technology, outsourcing, productivity gains, and changes in business practices also affect employment.
Workers in declining occupations can strengthen their options by emphasizing responsibilities that are harder to standardize, including conflict resolution, complex case review, regulatory compliance, relationship management, and supervision.
Fast-growing careers tied to AI and IT
The growth side of the projections is concentrated in occupations that develop technology, analyze information, and protect digital systems.
BLS projects data scientist employment to grow 33.5% from 2024 to 2034, adding about 82,500 jobs. Information security analyst employment is expected to rise 28.5%, while operations research analyst employment is projected to grow 21.5%.
Computer and information research scientist employment is projected to grow 19.7%. These professionals develop new approaches to computing and solve complex technology problems involving machine learning, robotics, and data-intensive systems.
Software developer employment is projected to rise 15.8%, adding about 267,700 jobs. AI coding tools may help developers complete some assignments faster, but organizations will still need workers to design applications, integrate systems, test software, maintain infrastructure, and manage security.
Closely related careers can have different outlooks. BLS projects database architect employment to grow 9%, while database administrator employment is expected to decline 1%. The agency expects cloud computing to allow fewer administrators to support more organizations, while architects remain necessary to design and secure complex data systems.
Some relationship-based occupations are also expected to grow even as software automates parts of their work. Personal financial adviser employment is projected to rise 10% from 2024 to 2034. An aging population is expected to increase demand for retirement planning, while automated investment services may reduce demand for some routine advice.
A strong growth rate does not guarantee easy entry. Technical occupations may require a specific degree, portfolio, certification, or previous experience.
How to assess AI risk in your career
Start by finding your current or target occupation in the BLS Occupational Outlook Handbook. Compare its projected employment change with its average annual openings. One figure shows whether the occupation is expected to grow or shrink; the other estimates how many positions may become available as workers enter and leave the field.
Students and early-career workers should also compare entry-level education requirements, licensing rules, typical duties, and local demand before choosing a degree or certification. No single growth percentage should determine a career decision.
Career changers should identify the gap between their current experience and the minimum requirements for their target occupation. Before paying for a boot camp, certificate, or degree, check whether employers routinely request the credential and whether the program publishes clear information about completion rates and employment outcomes.
Working professionals can separate the repeatable parts of their jobs from responsibilities involving judgment, trust, negotiation, or ownership of a final decision. Skills in reviewing AI output, protecting sensitive information, supervising automated workflows, and explaining decisions may become more valuable as employers introduce new tools.
What the projections mean for your career
The latest BLS data shows an uneven labor-market shift, not a single wave of job losses. Routine administrative, processing, and customer-support work faces greater pressure, while data, cybersecurity, computing research, and software occupations are projected to grow rapidly through 2034.
For many workers, the result may fall between complete replacement and no change. AI could remove certain assignments, alter entry-level work, raise productivity expectations, or make new technical skills standard while leaving the broader occupation in place.
Use national projections as a starting point, then compare them with annual openings, local demand, education requirements, and the skills employers repeatedly request. The most useful question is not whether a job is completely safe from AI, but which parts of it employers will continue to value.
